How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington without results
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his first term, including his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
The president loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then promoted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.